Chapter 32: Statistics 101

  “Yay!” Pix exclaimed, throwing away her paddle toy, and clapping her hands. “Boss is giving another lecture!”

  “This should be…interesting.” Balthor muttered, rolling his eyes.

  “Hey, I’ve been working on my presentation skills, Balthor.” Chronos said defensively. “I assure you, this time everything will go smoothly.”

  Balthor gave him a skeptical nod. “We’ll see.” He turned to me. “Mr. Dar, we’ll be handing out evaluation forms after the lecture. Make sure to grade Young Master’s performance with utmost seriousness.”

  I nodded slowly, even though I had no idea what he was talking about.

  “You asked for clarity about the Déjà vu System’s design – specifically, why your memories do not persist between runs.” Chronos began, his voice echoing around the auditorium. “To understand, you must grasp the nature of our enemy, Erebus.”

  I crossed my arms, leaning back in my seat. “You told me the basics. You said he wakes up every millennia and tries to devour…everything. Right?”

  “Correct. Almost.” Chronos said, nodding slightly. “What you may not realize yet is the sheer scale of this endless war. It spans beyond your time – and even your world.”

  “Beyond my world?” I blinked, straightening up in the chair. “What are you talking about?”

  Chronos raised a hand and snapped his fingers. The blackboard behind him shimmered, and suddenly an image appeared – a bustling cityscape unlike anything I had ever seen. Some structures belched smoke into the air, while strange contraptions on wheels moved along the streets that were guarded by...what even was that? Giant monsters made of metal?

  “This is another world.” Chronos explained. “Not quite like yours. A world powered by steam, fire, and machinery. Its people have built towering cities, their lives dictated by the elaborate mechanisms they constantly create and the relentless industry they power.”

  I stared at the moving image, mesmerized. “What…what is that?” I’d seen magical illusions before, but this felt different. It was too detailed to be something so simple. It was almost like a window to a different reality.

  Chronos snapped his fingers again, and the image changed. This time, the city was sleek and dark, its structures tall enough to pierce the clouds. Bright lights glimmered in countless windows, and the people there moved around with metals protruding from their bodies – some had half their faces replaced with metal, while others had metallic limbs that transformed into blades, making them resemble praying mantises.

  “This world,” Chronos continued, “is dominated by glass, metal, and advanced technology. The people here have pushed the limits of their bodies and minds through these innovations, but at a heavy price.”

  I shook my head, overwhelmed. “I don’t even know what I’m looking at. How can people live like that?”

  “It’s the same everywhere – they adapt.” Chronos replied simply. “Each world has its own rules. People either adapt, or they perish.”

  Before I could ask another question, he snapped his fingers again. The next image was odd as well. The city here had tall structures, just like the previous ones, but here they seemed to be made mostly of stone, like in my world. The people carried small, glowing objects in their hands – somewhat reminding me of the System’s screens, and what looked like massive carriages moved on wheels along paved roads. Compared to the other two, this world seemed pretty mundane.

  “This world is closer to its natural state.” Chronos explained. “Its people use no magic, nor do they have the technology of the previous one. Instead, they rely on ingenuity and tools to shape their lives. Despite lacking mana, they have created great wonders and achieved amazing accomplishments.”

  I stared at the image, struggling to process what he was showing me. “This is…real?”

  “Yes.” Chronos nodded. “Just as real as your world.”

  I opened my mouth to protest, still in disbelief at it all, but then I remembered my first meeting with Chronos – the many terms he mentioned, things I’ve never heard of, that he claimed came from another world. Déjà vu being the most memorable.

  “Imagine your world as a single branch on a vast tree with endless branches. Each branch represents a different world. Some are similar to yours, while others are incredibly different.” Balthor interjected, his calm voice drawing my attention. “Erebus is the blight who seeks to consume the tree itself.”

  “Yeah!” Pix suddenly chimed in, grinning. “And Master Chronos here is the gardener trying to keep the tree alive.” She paused, scratching her head. “Wait, does that make us the gardening tools?”

  Balthor sighed. “Not now, Pix.”

  I shook my head, trying to focus. “Alright, let’s say I believe all this. It’s a lot to take in, but let’s say it’s true. What does that have to do with me forgetting everything?”

  Chronos snapped his fingers, and the blackboard returned to its original state. “I’ve given this introduction to help you understand that Erebus shares one crucial trait with me: he isn’t confined to a single era or a single world. He is timeless. This means, like me, he is everywhere and nowhere all at once. And so, he can see all the loops you've had so far and remember them. But in his current state of power, he is extremely weakened and has a lot of disadvantages. In particular, the fact that he needs a vessel to see, but especially - the way he operates.”

  He paused, letting his words sink in. My heart skipped a beat as he turned to the blackboard. “Now, to answer your question.” He drew a single line across the board with a piece of chalk. “This is the baseline – the original timeline. The one where you died before I chose and placed you in this time loop.”

  He added more lines beneath it, each one diverging slightly. “These additional lines represent your subsequent loops. Some deviate only slightly from the baseline, with minor changes, while others diverge more significantly – especially when you chose different paths in the tomb and encountered new clues and dangers.”

  I nodded, following along so far.

  Stolen content warning: this tale belongs on Royal Road. Report any occurrences elsewhere.

  Chronos then added small arrows, each stretching from the baseline to any of the other lines. “Erebus measures these deviations, calculating the variance.”

  “Variance?” I frowned. “What’s that?”

  “In mathematical terms, it’s the degree of difference.” Balthor explained.

  Chronos nodded appreciatively. “The more significant the changes, the greater the variance. When the variance surpasses the threshold Erebus has set, he begins searching for the source of the deviation.”

  Pix chimed in, now lying on the ground. “And when he finds you, he marks you, tracks you, and messes with everything you’re trying to do.”

  A chill ran down my spine. “So, the memory loss…it’s to keep me from making big changes?”

  “Precisely,” Chronos confirmed. “Without your memories, the changes you make are subtle enough to fall under Erebus’ threshold. This allows you to grow stronger without drawing his gaze.”

  “Wait a second.” I said, narrowing my eyes at him. “How haven’t I crossed the threshold yet? I mean, I just killed Kaelstrife. He didn’t even respawn after I reawakened at Checkpoint. Surely, that’s a big enough change to…” I stopped, the realization hitting. “Wait, don’t tell me…don’t tell me that’s why Gaelith killed us. I’m marked now, aren’t I?”

  “No.” Chronos shook his head. “You're not marked, and Erebus is not yet aware of you.”

  “But Gaelith – “

  “I cannot elaborate on Gaelith due to the rules.” Chronos interrupted, his tone firm. “Suffice it to say, his actions were not because you crossed the threshold. You remain undetected.”

  “But how?” I pressed. “Kaelstrife was his friend, wasn’t he? There’s no way he won’t remember me in the next run!”

  “You don't need to worry about Gaelith.” Chronos said. “You’ll have to trust me on this one. Eventually, you’ll understand why on your own. But until then…” He tapped on the blackboard with the chalk. “The reason you’re still under Erebus’ radar lies in his methodology – the disadvantage I mentioned earlier.” He gestured to the additional lines he’d drawn earlier. “With each loop, Erebus gains another data point – a new timeline to measure. While the first few loops may have been simple to compare to the original, your changes in those were fairly insignificant…apart from the one caused by Yana, for which she paid dearly.”

  My heart twisted at his mention of Yana.

  Chronos continued. “But as more loops occur, the complexity of Erebus’ task increases.” He drew a dashed line beneath the branching loops and labeled it “Average”.

  “At his current state, Erebus cannot compare each loop to the baseline in real time – it’s too much information for his weakened self. Instead, he calculates an average – a constantly evolving measure that accounts for all the loops that happened thus far.”

  Pix hopped onto the lectern, dangling her legs as she added cheerfully. “Think of it like trying to compare today’s breakfast to the one you had a month ago, except you ate the same meal every morning, but slightly different.”

  Balthor picked up where she left off. “Instead of going backwards day by day, and recalling every small change made each morning – like swapping an apple for an orange, cow milk for goat milk, or oatmeal for another grain – you simplify it. You ate a grain, a fruit, and some milk. That’s the average Master Chronos refers to.”

  I nodded, their metaphor helping me grasp the concept.

  Chronos resumed. “By comparing the latest loop to this evolving average, Erebus streamlines his analysis. It allows him to detect major changes without drowning in information. However, this method isn’t precise and introduces a delay.”

  He pointed to one of the earlier loops. “Every so often, Erebus does compare the latest loop to the baseline – the original timeline – but these checks are infrequent. Until such a comparison occurs, the evolving average keeps you under his threshold.”

  I stared at the lines, my thoughts racing. “So…the more loops I go through, the more time it takes for Erebus to notice anything?”

  Chronos nodded. “As the amount of information grows, the calculations become more complex. This buys you time to strengthen yourself – to prepare for the moment he finally notices you. By then, you’ll be too powerful for him to stop you.”

  I exhaled slowly. “So, you’re saying that even though I killed Kaelstrife, this significant change gets blended into the Average because my earlier runs had little to no significant changes? That feels a bit like luck…”

  “It’s not about luck. It’s by design.” Chronos replied sharply. “The memory loss ensures subtlety. It is not reliant on luck, despite how it may feel to you. The probability of remaining under Erebus’ threshold 50 runs in with the Déjà vu System is approximately 97.2%.”

  I raised an eyebrow. “That’s…oddly specific.”

  “Because it is precise.” Chronos said. “In contrast, consider Dolos and Goren.”

  I tensed at the mention of those names, while Chronos continued. “Goren retains all his memories between loops - every success, every failure. Do you understand what that means in the grand scheme of things?”

  He didn’t wait for an answer.

  “It means Goren crossed Erebus’ threshold long ago.” Chronos continued. “Erebus marked him and has been constantly adjusting the dungeon to counter him, ensuring Goren can never truly succeed.”

  Pix hopped off the lectern, her expression serious. “Basically, poor Goren’s stuck in a never-ending tug-of-war, and Erebus keeps pulling the rope further away.”

  “That’s…” I hesitated, unsure how to feel. Goren had killed me eight times for XP, yet hearing this, I felt bad for him. “That’s horrible. Why would Dolos design his System that way?”

  Chronos frowned. “Because, as I’ve told you before, Dolos doesn’t care about defeating Erebus. Nor does he care about Goren’s well-being. He only does this to create additional obstacles for me.”

  “Why does he hate you so much?” I asked. “It all feels a bit too personal.”

  Pix and Balthor exchanged a glance, seeming down. I realized the answer to that question wouldn’t be simple.

  Chronos sighed heavily. “It is…a difficult subject, but you deserve to know.”

  He clasped his hands behind his back and began pacing slowly around the stage. “Long ago, before Dolos became what he is now, he was one of my helpers. Like Pix and Balthor, he worked alongside me, aiding in the battle against Erebus.”

  I blinked, surprised by the revelation, but stayed silent, letting Chronos continue.

  “He was brilliant at his job - balancing Balthor’s wisdom with Pix’s creativity. Together, they formed the perfect trinity of support, and we achieved great victories.”

  Pix stared at the floor, her usual grin turned upside down. Balthor, though harder to read, seemed noticeably tenser.

  “But then,” Chronos continued, his voice becoming heavier, “came a battle unlike any before. The champion I chose that time – Arabella was her name – was strong, brave, and selfless. So selfless that, when no other path to victory remained, she sacrificed herself to ensure Erebus was defeated and her world was saved.”

  I swallowed hard, hoping I won’t meet the same fate. “What happened to Dolos?”

  Chronos stopped pacing around and gazed upward, looking distant. “Dolos did something he shouldn’t have – he fell in love with her.”

  “Oh…”

  “Oh indeed.” Chronos said, nodding. “After her death, he begged me to reverse time and bring her back. He pleaded, argued, even demanded. But I couldn’t.”

  “Why not?”

  “Because to rewind back such a fateful encounter would risk undoing her victory. If I brought her back, Erebus would rise again – now fully aware of her capabilities and resolve. She wouldn’t succeed a second time as he will be ready, and both her universe and she would be lost forever.”

  Pix spoke quietly. “But Dolos didn’t see it that way. All he saw was someone he loved who didn’t need to die.”

  Chronos nodded. “He couldn’t accept my decision. Our arguments grew bitter, and eventually, he left. He traveled far – through the realms of gods and demons alike – searching for a way to bring her back. Many of those deities lied to him, promising what they couldn’t deliver. He believed them anyway. Over time, it all consumed him, and he became what he is today…the very embodiment of the lies and deceit he'd endured.”

  “And now,” Balthor finished grimly, “his sole purpose is to make Young Master suffer. To hinder the champions he chooses. To disrupt our plans. To ensure that our victories come at the highest possible cost.”

  At the highest possible cost…

  “You don’t need to worry.” Chronos said, his voice turning gentler. “If he interfered and took the third shard, then our contract with him is null and void. Either way, the Darknessbound Core is not the only way to defeat Erebus.”

  “What was the incident you both kept referring to in his domain?” I asked, raising the question that had been nagging at me.

  Chronos’ face soured.

  “Next time.” He said curtly. Then he snapped his fingers, and everything went black.